Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market currently prices a 9% chance that Donald Trump will publicly insult a specific individual between now and 31 May 2026. On Polygon, this conditional token trades at 0.09 USDC per share, meaning traders holding YES tokens profit if Trump makes a clearly negative personal or professional attack—whether via nickname, accusation of weakness, or derogatory language—that meets the resolution criteria. The NO side, priced at 0.91, reflects confidence that either Trump avoids such a statement or any statement falls outside the definition's scope.

Historical precedent suggests this probability warrants scrutiny. During Trump's 2020 campaign and post-presidency, public insults of named figures occurred frequently enough that a nine-month window capturing his public statements—speeches, social media, interviews—would typically carry higher odds. His pattern of attacking political opponents, media figures, and former allies by name remained consistent through 2024 and early 2025. The specificity of the resolution criteria matters: the market requires a named individual and language meeting the insulting threshold, not merely criticism of policies or groups.

Traders should monitor Trump's campaign schedule and media appearances closely. Any significant political event—primary contests, convention proceedings, or high-profile controversies involving named figures—increases statement frequency. Recent reporting from major news outlets covering his 2024 activities documented dozens of named personal attacks monthly. The settlement window extends through spring 2026, capturing a full election cycle. The low current price may reflect either genuine restraint expectations or underpricing relative to historical baselines.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.