Where will Trump and Putin meet next?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket’s contract is still marked at 0% YES, so the market is effectively pricing no fresh Trump–Putin encounter before 30 June 2026. A 0% quote on a conditional token does not mean the event is impossible; it usually means there is no visible liquidity or no one is willing to pay up for a positive outcome on Polygon with USDC at current levels. The last clear precedent was the August 2025 Anchorage summit, when Trump and Putin met at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson and held a joint press briefing, showing that a meeting can be arranged quickly once both sides agree on venue, security and optics.

For traders, the main watchpoint is not abstract diplomacy but whether a concrete summit notice appears. Politico reported on 16 October 2025 that Trump said he would again meet Putin and that Budapest was under consideration, which is the sort of signal that can move this market sharply if followed by a date, location and travel plan. What matters next is whether the White House or Kremlin confirms a bilateral stop, whether there is any Ukraine-related ceasefire push that creates a face-to-face incentive, and whether the logistics can be completed inside the market window. On Polymarket, a verified in-person interaction at any listed location would settle the location contract; absent that, the market resolves to No meeting by 30 June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Where will Trump and Putin meet next? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.