Skip to main content
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogTrade this market →

What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?

Live odds for "What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?" pulled from the Polygon order book, alongside the platform attributes of every venue that runs this contract.

33 outcomes · leader: Ship / Chip at 99%

27% YES 73% NO Volume: $1.3M 24h volume: $1.1M Liquidity: $103K Opened: 4 May 2026 Closes: 15 May 2026 196 comments

Resolution criteria: Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping from May 14 to May 15, 2026 (https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/china/china-us-talks-iran-intl-hnk). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other

Open live market →
What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?

Market statistics

Total volume
$1.3M
24h volume
$1.1M
Liquidity
$103K
Open interest
$765K
Comments
196

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
27% 73% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
27% 73% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Available prediction outcomes (33)

Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.

#1 Ship / Chip
Ship / Chip ▲ +33.4%
Vol $41K · 24h $38K
99% Trade →
#2 Peng
Peng ▲ +43.1%
Vol $50K · 24h $44K
99% Trade →
#3 Iran
Iran ▼ -24.5%
Vol $139K · 24h $111K
54% Trade →
#4 Rare earth
Rare earth ▼ -12.5%
Vol $18K · 24h $15K
47% Trade →
#5 Tariff
Tariff ▼ -37.0%
Vol $76K · 24h $58K
44% Trade →
#6 AI / Artificial Intelligence
AI / Artificial Intelligence ▼ -35.5%
Vol $129K · 24h $108K
40% Trade →
#7 Strait / Hormuz
Strait / Hormuz ▼ -28.5%
Vol $45K · 24h $37K
39% Trade →
#8 Soybean
Soybean ▼ -27.5%
Vol $19K · 24h $14K
37% Trade →
#9 Nuclear
Nuclear ▼ -36.5%
Vol $22K · 24h $16K
33% Trade →
#10 Taiwan / Tibet
Taiwan / Tibet ▼ -16.5%
Vol $209K · 24h $189K
31% Trade →
#11 Japan / Korea
Japan / Korea ▼ -32.0%
Vol $16K · 24h $14K
27% Trade →
#12 Friend of mine
Friend of mine ▼ -39.0%
Vol $35K · 24h $31K
26% Trade →
#13 Great Wall
Great Wall ▼ -3.5%
Vol $10K · 24h $9K
26% Trade →
#14 Farmer
Farmer ▼ -35.0%
Vol $8K · 24h $6K
21% Trade →
#15 Fentanyl
Fentanyl ▼ -24.5%
Vol $23K · 24h $16K
18% Trade →
#16 Tanker
Tanker ▼ -15.5%
Vol $5K · 24h $4K
18% Trade →
#17 Tough Negotiator
Tough Negotiator ▼ -22.0%
Vol $14K · 24h $11K
17% Trade →
#18 Hong Kong
Hong Kong ▲ +3.0%
Vol $26K · 24h $23K
17% Trade →
#19 Hottest
Hottest ▼ -45.0%
Vol $11K · 24h $7K
16% Trade →
#20 Shanghai
Shanghai ▼ -7.5%
Vol $11K · 24h $8K
14% Trade →
#21 North Korea / Kim Jong Un
North Korea / Kim Jong Un ▼ -20.0%
Vol $10K · 24h $9K
13% Trade →
#22 Six Seven
Six Seven ▲ +3.5%
Vol $58K · 24h $53K
12% Trade →
#23 Transgender
Transgender ▲ +5.9%
Vol $36K · 24h $35K
11% Trade →
#24 TikTok
TikTok ▼ -17.5%
Vol $11K · 24h $8K
11% Trade →
#25 Covid / Pandemic
Covid / Pandemic ▼ -7.0%
Vol $37K · 24h $26K
11% Trade →
#26 Forbidden City
Forbidden City ▼ -10.0%
Vol $8K · 24h $7K
10% Trade →
#27 IQ
IQ ▼ -7.5%
Vol $9K · 24h $8K
9% Trade →
#28 Sleepy Joe
Sleepy Joe ▼ -5.6%
Vol $24K · 24h $19K
6% Trade →
#29 Mao
Mao ▼ -3.3%
Vol $9K · 24h $8K
6% Trade →
#30 Crypto / Bitcoin
Crypto / Bitcoin ▼ -3.2%
Vol $144K · 24h $115K
6% Trade →
#31 Kamikaze
Kamikaze ▼ -0.3%
Vol $14K · 24h $14K
5% Trade →
#32 Autopen / Auto Pen
Autopen / Auto Pen ▼ -2.3%
Vol $8K · 24h $6K
5% Trade →
#33 Cookie
Cookie ▼ -6.9%
Vol $5K · 24h $5K
5% Trade →

Market context

Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping from May 14 to May 15, 2026 (https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/04/china/china-us-talks-iran-intl-hnk). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other

Wikipedia Context

  • Trump family

    The Trump family is a prominent wealthy American family. The most well-known member is Donald Trump, the 45th and current 47th president of the United States, which makes them the present first family of the United States. The family is of German descent. They are active in business, entertainment, politics, and real estate. Other prominent members include D

  • Trump administration family separation policy
    Trump administration family separation policy

    The family separation policy under the first Trump administration was a controversial immigration enforcement strategy implemented in the United States from 2017 to 2018, aimed at deterring illegal immigration by separating migrant children from their parents or guardians. The policy was presented to the public as a "zero tolerance" approach, intended to enc

  • Trump Always Chickens Out

    "Trump Always Chickens Out" (TACO) is a pejorative description of the perceived tendency of United States president Donald Trump to make threats, only to later delay or renege on them as a way to increase time for negotiations, allow markets to rebound, and avert backlash. The phrase was popularized in May 2025 after the many threats and reversals during the

  • Trump fake electors plot

    The Trump fake electors plot was an attempt by U.S. president Donald Trump and associates to have him remain in power after losing the 2020 United States presidential election. After the results of the election determined Trump had lost, he, his associates, and Republican Party officials in seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New

Methodology

This page reviews What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.

Trade What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi … on PolyGram

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →