Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Trump has already ordered and begun the public release of declassified UAP material, and the current Polymarket price of 100% implies traders are treating this market as effectively settled in the affirmative. On Polymarket, the contract is a conditional token on Polygon settled in USDC, so the practical question for holders is not whether the story exists, but whether any newly declassified files fall within the market’s wording and deadline.

The key precedent is that the administration has now moved from announcement to execution: on 8 May the Department of War said the first tranche of files was live on WAR.GOV/UFO, describing it as the start of a rolling declassification effort, while Fox News and CBS both reported declassified documents, videos and photos being posted. That matters because the market only needs one file that was not previously public and that pertains to extraterrestrial life or unexplained aerial phenomena. Similar past disclosure waves around Pentagon UAP videos and AARO investigations show that once the process starts, subsequent releases can continue in batches rather than a single event.

For traders, the main catalysts are further official postings on WAR.GOV/UFO, any White House, Pentagon or ODNI statements on additional tranches, and whether the administration expands the review to more agencies or older holdings. The recent CBS report on 8 May is the most relevant near-term source, because it confirms the release process is active rather than merely announced. The settlement window runs to 31 December 2026, so any later batch of declassified material would still count if it meets the contract’s “not previously publicly available” standard.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump declassifies new UFO files by...? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.