Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any leader being permanently removed from office before 2027 reflects a market that has effectively resolved, as Viktor Orbán’s historic April 2026 election defeat to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party in Hungary has already triggered the “Yes” outcome for the Orbán-specific contract, leaving no credible near-term threats to the remaining leaders on the board such as Trump, Putin, Xi, or Netanyahu[1].

Historically, permanent removals from office—distinct from temporary suspensions like Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent impeachment or provisional transfers under the 25th Amendment—require either resignation, termination, impeachment with removal, or the expiration of a term without renewal, as defined by similar conditional markets on Kalshi and Polymarket[3][6]. With all other leaders showing 0% probability and no credible threats, the market’s pricing aligns with the absence of any imminent, permanent power shifts in the global political landscape.

Traders should monitor official announcements of departure within the next year, as markets resolve only when a leader no longer holds office in any capacity, excluding death or temporary absences[3]. While no recent news source signals imminent removals, the settlement window ending 31 December 2026 means any formal resignation or removal announcement reported by a source agency before that date would trigger resolution, though current data suggests this is unlikely[6]. The on-chain mechanics using USDC on Polygon and conditional tokens ensure transparent, automated payouts once the resolution criteria are met, but the 0% price indicates no such event is anticipated.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.