Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
63% | 37% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
63% | 37% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Victor Marx | 63% |
| Barbara Kirkmeyer | 33% |
| Scott Bottoms | 0% |
| Joshua Griffin | 0% |
| Greg Lopez | 0% |
| Will McBride | 0% |
| Stevan Gess | 0% |
| Brycen Garrison | 0% |
| Daniel Thomas | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Candidate B | 0% |
| Candidate D | 0% |
| Candidate F | 0% |
| Candidate H | 0% |
| Candidate J | 0% |
| Candidate L | 0% |
| Candidate N | 0% |
| Candidate P | 0% |
| Candidate R | 0% |
| Candidate T | 0% |
| Candidate V | 0% |
| Candidate X | 0% |
| Candidate Z | 0% |
| Mark Baisley | 0% |
| Jason Clark | 0% |
| Jason Mikesell | 0% |
| Jon Gray-Ginsberg | 0% |
| Bob Brinkerhoff | 0% |
| Robert Moore | 0% |
| Candidate A | 0% |
| Candidate C | 0% |
| Candidate E | 0% |
| Candidate G | 0% |
| Candidate I | 0% |
| Candidate K | 0% |
| Candidate M | 0% |
| Candidate O | 0% |
| Candidate Q | 0% |
| Candidate S | 0% |
| Candidate U | 0% |
| Candidate W | 0% |
| Candidate Y | 0% |
Market context
The Colorado Governor Republican Primary Winner prediction market currently prices this outcome at 63% YES. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the pri…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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