Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tiger Woods has no known federal criminal convictions that would make him eligible for a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve. The golfer's 2017 arrest in Florida on a DUI charge resulted in a plea deal and probation rather than conviction; his 2021 car accident in California was a civil and insurance matter. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 1% YES, reflecting the absence of any factual basis for a pardon and the low historical frequency of presidents issuing pardons to individuals without criminal records.

Presidential pardons typically address federal convictions, and comparative cases illustrate why this market's probability remains negligible. Trump issued 143 pardons and 36 commutations during his first term, predominantly targeting political allies, family members, and individuals with existing federal sentences. Notable examples include Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, and Roger Stone—all convicted felons with documented federal cases. No sitting president has pardoned a private citizen without criminal charges in modern history, establishing a strong precedent against such action.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for any unexpected federal indictment against Woods, which would be the only realistic catalyst for a pardon scenario. As of early 2025, no such charges exist or have been announced. The market's settlement window extends to June 2026, covering Trump's second term, but absent a dramatic legal development, the conditional token structure on Polygon reflects a vanishingly small probability of resolution to YES. The USDC liquidity pool pricing reflects market consensus that this remains a tail-risk event.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.