# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 0% for a YES outcome, which means the current crowd view is that the next MrBeast upload will not land in the bracket needed for this market, or that the market is simply too thin to support a positive price. On Polymarket, traders are buying and selling USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, so the price reflects live demand rather than a fixed forecast. With the settlement window ending on 31 May 2026, the relevant question is not MrBeast’s average reach over time, but whether his next full-length main-channel upload can clear the week-one view threshold that corresponds to the market’s YES range.

MrBeast is one of the few YouTube creators whose first-week performance can move into tens of millions of views quickly, so comparable markets tend to hinge on the scale of the launch rather than the long tail. Recent MrBeast view markets on other venues have shown very strong concentration around the upper brackets, with day-one and week-one contracts often trading as if a single viral release is the base case. His main-channel uploads routinely open with eight-figure view counts within days, and the channel’s scale, packaging and recommendation reach make the first 24 to 72 hours especially important. That means a 0% price here is less about a settled consensus on his ceiling and more about traders assigning no value to the specific bracket required by this contract.

The key catalyst is timing: when MrBeast actually posts the next long-form video, because the market resolves from the first seven days of that upload on his main channel. Traders should also watch for any schedule slips, teaser posts, or changes in upload cadence, since a delayed video can leave the market to resolve to the lowest range if no upload arrives by 30 June 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the view count on the official MrBeast YouTube channel, so late edits, Shorts, trailers and other side content do not matter. For context, the channel’s recent uploads have continued to draw very large initial audiences, but the exact bracket outcome will depend on how strongly the next release is packaged and promoted in the week after publication.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.