"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this on-chain USDC market at about 82% for YES, with conditional tokens on Polygon settling against The Numbers’ final domestic 4-day opening weekend figure once the May 22–25 box office data is locked. That implies the crowd is leaning towards the film clearing the lower brackets, but the contract still has room for a meaningful move if weekend play softens or if the final reported total lands near a threshold.

The current price sits in the context of very wide early tracking. Recent coverage has described studio and analyst forecasts moving up from roughly an $80 million four-day start to a range around $86 million to $109 million, with some reports now pointing to a possible $90 million to $100 million domestic debut. That matters because Star Wars openings have historically been volatile: Solo opened to $84.4 million over three days, while the franchise’s bigger entries have set a much higher bar. A 4-day Memorial Day frame also makes direct comparisons awkward, because holiday play can spread demand across more days than a standard Friday-to-Sunday launch.

For traders, the key catalysts are late box office tracking revisions, any final marketing push from Disney and Lucasfilm, and whether Thursday-night and Friday numbers hold up against the optimistic forecasts now circulating in trade coverage such as Boxoffice Pro. The market will resolve from final domestic daily figures on The Numbers, not studio estimates, so the last reported weekend total is what matters if the film finishes near a bracket edge. In a contract already near a high probability, small changes in turnout, walk-up business, and holiday legging can be enough to shift the payout odds materially.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.