Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran's nationwide internet blackout began on 28 February 2026 following military escalation involving the United States and Israel. The Iranian government has historically used internet shutdowns as a tool during periods of civil unrest and military tension, though the current conflict represents an unprecedented scale of disruption. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 0% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus that restoration by 30 April 2026—just two months away—is effectively impossible given the geopolitical trajectory and the Iranian authorities' demonstrated willingness to maintain connectivity restrictions during active hostilities.

Historical precedent suggests internet blackouts during major Iranian crises persist for weeks to months rather than days. The 2019 nationwide shutdown lasted approximately one week; the 2022 protests saw rolling restrictions lasting several weeks. However, those incidents occurred during domestic unrest rather than active military conflict with foreign powers. The current situation differs materially: with ongoing military engagement, Iranian decision-makers face competing pressures between maintaining internal control and preventing real-time intelligence gathering by adversaries. Full restoration would require either a ceasefire agreement, significant de-escalation, or a strategic shift in Iranian security doctrine.

Traders monitoring this contract should track ceasefire negotiations, statements from Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders regarding operational security, and any announcements from international mediators. Recent reporting from Reuters and AFP indicates no active peace talks as of early March 2026. The settlement window's tight two-month timeframe means any restoration would need to occur within weeks of the market's current date, making the 0% pricing rational given the absence of imminent diplomatic breakthroughs or military developments suggesting rapid de-escalation.

Methodology

We track Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.