Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, has experienced significant traffic disruptions since mid-2024 following regional tensions and Houthi attacks on shipping. The IMF Portwatch metric tracks daily transit calls—container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo vessels—with a 7-day moving average. The market asks whether this average will reach 60 arrivals per day by end-April 2026, a threshold representing normalised pre-disruption traffic levels. Polymarket currently prices YES at 0%, reflecting trader conviction that sustained recovery to baseline transit volumes remains highly unlikely within the settlement window.

Historical precedent suggests extended recovery timelines for major chokepoint disruptions. The 2022 Suez Canal blockage took roughly three months to clear operationally, yet shipping patterns normalised unevenly across subsequent quarters as insurers reassessed risk and routes. The Strait of Hormuz disruptions have proven more persistent; transit calls declined from approximately 80–90 daily arrivals pre-2024 to sustained levels below 60, with shipping companies rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope despite added cost and transit time. This structural shift reflects both security concerns and insurance premium escalation rather than temporary congestion.

Catalysts for recovery centre on geopolitical de-escalation in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf region, alongside potential diplomatic breakthroughs or security arrangements. Recent reporting from Lloyd's List and maritime intelligence firms indicates no imminent resolution to Houthi activity or regional tensions. The market's 0% probability reflects the compressed timeframe—sixteen months—against historical patterns where chokepoint normalisation typically requires sustained periods of reduced threat perception and insurance cost moderation. Traders should monitor US naval presence announcements, Iranian policy statements, and quarterly Portwatch data releases for directional signals.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.