Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket currently prices the conditional token for Mojtaba Khamenei departing Iran at effectively zero, with the YES side trading near 1% on USDC/Polygon. The market settles on 30 April 2026, creating a roughly 18-month window for confirmation of any departure—whether by aircraft to a third country or by maritime vessel into international waters. The resolution criteria require explicit confirmation of physical exit from Iranian territory, not merely transit through airspace.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's second son, has remained within Iran throughout decades of political turbulence, sanctions, and succession uncertainty. Comparable cases offer limited precedent: senior Iranian officials have occasionally travelled abroad for medical treatment or diplomatic purposes, but members of the Supreme Leader's immediate family rarely leave the country given security protocols and succession implications. The 0% crowd probability reflects the structural reality that Khamenei family members face extraordinary constraints on international movement, with departure signalling either severe internal instability or a fundamental shift in Iran's political order.

Traders should monitor announcements regarding the Supreme Leader's health, any public statements from Mojtaba himself, and reporting on factional tensions within the Revolutionary Guards—his primary institutional base. Scheduled international conferences or diplomatic initiatives involving Iranian delegations could create departure opportunities, though his participation remains historically unlikely. Western intelligence assessments, particularly from Israeli or US sources, occasionally surface claims about Iranian officials' movements; such reports would require independent corroboration for market resolution purposes.

Methodology

This page reviews Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.