Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The current market price on Polymarket for the contract asking which countries will recognise Israel by June 30 sits at a flat 0% YES, reflecting a near-total consensus among traders that no new formal recognitions will occur in the remaining settlement window. This pricing is anchored in the on-chain mechanics of the platform, where conditional tokens backed by USDC on the Polygon network are being traded with zero liquidity for the "Yes" outcome, suggesting the crowd views the geopolitical conditions as immovable.

Historically, formal state recognitions of Israel have been rare and typically tied to major diplomatic breakthroughs, such as the 1979 Camp David Accords with Egypt or the 2020 Abraham Accords with the UAE and Bahrain. Since 2020, the pace has slowed significantly, with only Kosovo and Somaliland (in late 2025) adding to the list, while 26 countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, have never recognised Israel. The current 0% probability aligns with this pattern, as no major Arab or Muslim nations have announced imminent formal recognition, and the diplomatic momentum has recently shifted toward recognising Palestine rather than Israel.

Traders should monitor the upcoming UN General Assembly sessions and any scheduled foreign ministerial meetings in the Gulf, where announcements regarding normalisation could emerge. However, recent reporting from Al Jazeera indicates that while countries like France and Belgium have recognised Palestine, there is no parallel wave of new recognitions for Israel. The key dependency remains the willingness of non-recognising states to shift policy, which currently appears unlikely given the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the lack of a comprehensive peace framework. Without a formal government decree, any announcement of intent will not resolve the market to "Yes," keeping the probability firmly at zero.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.