What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The core question hinges on whether a Trump administration will accept Iran's continued uranium enrichment as part of any negotiated settlement by end-May 2026. Polymarket currently prices this at 31% YES, implying traders see a roughly 2-to-1 odds against such an agreement materialising within the timeframe. The resolution criteria are permissive: any US acceptance of ongoing enrichment—whether capped, monitored, or unrestricted—qualifies, provided the agreement is formalised and publicly acknowledged.

Historical precedent offers mixed signals. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 permitted Iran to enrich uranium under strict International Atomic Energy Agency oversight, capping enrichment at 3.65% and limiting stockpiles. Trump withdrew from that deal in 2018, citing its inadequacy. A fresh agreement would require either Trump accepting constraints similar to the JCPOA or Iran accepting terms it previously rejected. The 2023 interim talks under Biden produced no binding accord, and Iran has since accelerated enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels (60%), hardening negotiating positions on both sides.

Traders should monitor Trump's stated negotiating priorities, expected to centre on ballistic missiles and regional behaviour rather than enrichment per se. Any formal talks announcement, IAEA reports on Iranian stockpile levels, or statements from Trump's nominated Iran envoy will signal movement. The 18-month window is tight; meaningful diplomacy typically requires 6–12 months minimum. Recent reporting suggests Trump's team favours "maximum pressure" initially, making early-window agreement unlikely unless Iran makes substantial concessions on non-enrichment issues first.

Methodology

We track What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.