Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at 99% YES, which means the market is treating the ceasefire as effectively intact unless there is a clearly reported US kinetic strike on Iranian soil before expiry. On the Polygon-based market, traders are still backing the YES side with USDC against conditional tokens that only pay if the ceasefire survives the resolution window. At this level, the contract is pricing continuity rather than negotiation risk, so only a material escalation would be expected to move it meaningfully.

That reading fits the recent pattern. When the US and Iran announced a two-week truce earlier in April, markets responded as though a broader regional shock was being lifted: oil fell sharply and equities rallied, even though reports at the time stressed the deal was temporary and dependent on the Strait of Hormuz remaining open. Reuters and Fortune later noted that the truce began to fray rhetorically within a day, but markets barely reacted, which is consistent with a high-probability ceasefire market staying pinned unless there is hard evidence of renewed direct conflict. Comparable event contracts tend to trade near certainty once the headline risk has passed, then only reprice on formal confirmation of a breach.

For traders, the main catalysts are official US statements, credible overnight reporting of strikes, and any abrupt change in the schedule for talks or regional force posture. The market’s definition is strict: it resolves No only if the US government publicly confirms, or credible reporting overwhelmingly confirms, a US kinetic action on Iranian soil within one calendar day of the strike. That means intra-day headlines, Pentagon briefings, and wire reports matter more than broad diplomatic commentary, while any delay in confirmation reduces the chance of a contract reset.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.