Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 23 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. On Polymarket today, this contract trades with a current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome, suggesting traders overwhelmingly doubt the temperature will hit the specific threshold defined in the market resolution. This pricing reflects a stark disconnect from the on-chain mechanics, where USDC funds are locked on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, yet the market sentiment remains firmly bearish on the heat spike.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as a reaction to recent extremes rather than a lack of heat potential. Seoul’s June highs typically climb from 77°F to 81°F, rarely exceeding 87°F, yet 2026 has already seen a record-breaking 35.6°C (96.1°F) on 19 June, the highest June temperature since 1958[7]. Just days prior, the highest temperature recorded in the period was 91°F (32.8°C) on 19 June[3], while South Korea’s all-time record of 41.0°C was set in Hongcheon, not the capital[2]. The 0% price likely ignores that Incheon, being coastal, often stays cooler than inland Seoul, making the threshold harder to breach despite the regional heatwave.

Traders should monitor the North Pacific high-pressure system’s trajectory, which drives hot, humid summer weather in Seoul, and any official announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding sustained heat alerts[5]. A key catalyst is the scheduled weather forecast for late June, which AccuWeather predicts will see daily highs ranging from 83°F to 89°F (28.3°C to 31.7°C), with an average high of 86°F (30°C)[6]. While South Korea recently recorded its highest-ever July temperatures, reaching 37.7°C in Seoul[8], the specific dependency for this market is the Incheon station reading, which requires a precise alignment of coastal wind patterns and high-pressure intensity to exceed the threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.