US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran jointly announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. The market resolves YES if any portion of this agreement text becomes publicly available before 1 July 2026, and NO if the full text remains restricted. Polymarket currently prices this outcome at 86% YES, reflecting trader conviction that at least partial disclosure will occur within the fortnight following the signing date. The conditional tokens on Polygon settle against this binary: USDC stakes on YES tokens appreciate if even excerpts surface through official channels, media leaks, or congressional filings.

Historical precedent suggests high disclosure probability. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) saw its full text released within days of signature, published by the US State Department and circulated through UN channels. The 1979 Camp David Accords and subsequent Israel-Egypt peace treaty were similarly made public promptly. Conversely, some bilateral agreements remain classified or heavily redacted for years—though these typically involve military or intelligence provisions rather than diplomatic frameworks. The current agreement's characterisation as a broad diplomatic accord, rather than a security arrangement, tilts historical patterns toward transparency.

Traders should monitor congressional notification requirements. US law mandates that significant international agreements be reported to Congress, often triggering public disclosure through legislative channels or FOIA requests. The State Department's typical practice is releasing agreement texts on its official website within weeks of signature. Watch for statements from both governments on 19 June and immediately thereafter; Iranian officials have historically released agreement texts through their foreign ministry. Media organisations will likely obtain and publish portions if governments delay full release.

Methodology

We track US-Iran deal text released by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.