Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Market context

Polymarket currently prices the likelihood of Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian leaving office by end-2026 at 42%, reflecting meaningful uncertainty about his political durability over the next two years. The contract settles YES if he ceases to hold the presidency for any period within the window, with an announcement of resignation or removal triggering immediate resolution regardless of implementation timing. This broad settlement criterion captures scenarios ranging from formal impeachment through the Iranian parliament to health-related incapacity or political pressure forcing departure.

Iran's presidential transitions offer limited historical precedent for predicting Pezeshkian's tenure. His predecessor Mohammad Rouhani completed two full terms (2013–2021) despite international sanctions and domestic opposition, whilst Mahmoud Ahmadinejad served two terms before constitutional term limits applied. Pezeshkian, elected in September 2024 following Ebrahim Raisi's death in a helicopter crash, inherited a fractious political environment with the Supreme Leader retaining ultimate authority over security and foreign policy. The 42% probability reflects both the structural instability of Iranian politics and the fact that sitting presidents have historically survived their terms absent extraordinary circumstances.

Traders monitoring this contract should track parliamentary dynamics, particularly the composition of the Majlis and any shifts in hardline versus reformist factions that could precipitate impeachment proceedings. International escalation—particularly regarding nuclear negotiations or regional military confrontation—could destabilise Pezeshkian's position, as could domestic economic deterioration or health crises. The Iranian calendar marks key political moments in February (anniversary of the 1979 revolution) and parliamentary elections scheduled for 2026, both potential flashpoints for institutional pressure on the presidency.

Methodology

This page reviews Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.