Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Dallas Wings face the New York Liberty on 24 May at 3:30 PM ET in a regular-season WNBA matchup. Polymarket currently prices this binary at 100% YES, reflecting near-certainty that the game will be played and resolved to either team. The settlement window closes at 19:30 UTC on the same day, allowing roughly six hours post-game for resolution. Traders holding YES tokens on Polygon receive conditional USDC payouts only if the game concludes with a winner; postponement keeps the market open, whilst outright cancellation without rescheduling triggers a 50-50 split of the liquidity pool.

Historical WNBA scheduling shows cancellations remain rare outside force majeure events. The 2024 season proceeded without significant disruptions, and Liberty home games at Barclays Center have maintained reliable fixture status. Wings-Liberty matchups carry no known scheduling friction. The 100% implied probability reflects standard operational assumptions: no weather alerts for Brooklyn on 24 May, no reported roster crises, and no league-wide disruptions flagged in recent WNBA communications.

Traders should monitor the official WNBA schedule and team injury reports through 24 May morning. Liberty's roster depth and Wings' travel logistics from Dallas represent baseline operational variables. Any late announcement regarding venue access, player availability, or league directives would shift the cancellation risk premium. Current pricing suggests the market views game completion as virtually certain, leaving the outcome—Wings or Liberty victory—as the sole meaningful uncertainty once tipoff occurs.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.