Türkiye vs. United States

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **25% YES** today, which implies traders are assigning roughly a one-in-four chance that Türkiye beats the United States in the June 25 World Cup meeting settled through USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens. The market is centred on the match itself rather than broader tournament narratives, so the price reflects a binary read on the final result within the settlement window ending 2026-06-26T02:00:00Z. The game is listed by FIFA and ESPN for 25 June in Los Angeles, with SoFi Stadium marketing the event as a 7:00 p.m. local kick-off.[6][1][7]

That 25% level sits below a neutral 50% but is not extreme for a straight football match with elimination-style liquidity, where pre-match prices often move more on team news than on long-run strength. The United States entered the tournament with a 1-0-0 record in ESPN’s match listing, while Türkiye was 0-0-1, and the odds board there showed the US as the market favourite, with Türkiye priced at +155 on the moneyline and the draw at +290.[1] Historical meetings also give some context: U.S. Soccer says the sides have met four times since 1991, with the USMNT holding a 2W-1L-1D edge and winning the last two encounters.[4]

The main catalysts for a Polymarket trader are squad announcements, injuries, and any late scheduling or broadcast confirmation around the Group D slate. MLS Soccer says this is the final Group D match for the United States, following Paraguay on 12 June and Australia on 19 June, so the table position and what each side still needs by kickoff can matter materially.[2] Because this market settles on the official result, any verified changes to line-ups, venue timing, or tournament administration before 26 June can shift the conditional token price quickly, even if the underlying match odds move only modestly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.