England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 9% YES, implying the conditional token for any single scoreline trades at roughly 9 cents on the dollar across Polygon. This reflects the mathematical reality that a match settling to one of dozens of possible final scores carries low individual probability; the complementary "Any Other Score" contract absorbs the remaining 91% of implied value.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in football gravitate toward outcomes clustering around 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 results. England–Croatia's prior meeting in the 2018 World Cup semi-final ended 2–1 after extra time, though that contest extended beyond regulation. In qualifying and group-stage fixtures between comparable nations, scorelines of 0–0 or 1–0 have occurred in roughly 35–40% of matches, whilst any single three-goal margin or higher appears in fewer than 5% of cases. The 9% price reflects this distribution: traders are pricing the listed outcome as less likely than a draw or a one-goal England victory, but not negligible.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through May 2026, as absences of key attacking players could shift the probability toward lower-scoring outcomes. Fixture congestion in the preceding club season and weather conditions on match day will also influence scoring patterns. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 17 June, allowing no adjustment after the final whistle; conditional tokens on Polygon settle immediately upon resolution, with USDC redemption available within minutes of confirmation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.