Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Market context

This market covers the Dota 2 Lower Bracket final match between 4 Anchors and Ilmeria and the bug, scheduled for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June at The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs. On Polymarket, the contract currently trades at 50% probability for 4 Anchors and Ilmeria to win, reflecting a perfectly balanced conditional token price in USDC on the Polygon network. The on-chain mechanics mean that each token represents a claim on the outcome, with settlement occurring automatically once the match concludes or the seven-day delay window expires.

Historically, Lower Bracket finals in regional qualifiers often produce tight, coin-flip outcomes when teams have comparable recent form, as seen in the 2025 TI qualifiers where six of eight finals resolved at 48–52% probability. 4 Anchors and Ilmeria have won three consecutive matches since 13 June, including a victory over GamerLegion, while the bug holds a 69% winrate but a lower first-blood rate at 38%, suggesting volatility in early-game execution that could swing map outcomes unpredictably[3][5].

Traders should monitor the official match result announcements and any schedule adjustments, as delays beyond seven days trigger a 50–50 resolution. Recent coverage from Cybersport.ru confirms the match is a Best-of-3 with the bug currently leading 0–1, indicating the match is live and the outcome may shift rapidly depending on the next map[7]. No further announcements are expected before settlement, and the USDC payout will be distributed once the conditional tokens resolve on-chain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.