Will Anthropic’s valuation hit 2027 by December 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic’s private valuation must reach the listed threshold on Nasdaq Private Market data by 31 December 2026 for a Yes payout, and Polymarket is pricing that outcome at 12% today. The contract is settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, so the market is effectively expressing the chance that an NPM-reported price print crosses the line before year-end, rather than a broader view of the company’s business prospects.

That 12% implies traders think an NPM valuation jump of this size is possible, but not the base case. Recent comparison points matter: Anthropic disclosed a $380 billion post-money valuation in a $30 billion Series G round, and media reports have since pointed to talks around a fresh raise at roughly $900 billion. Moves of that scale are unusual, but private-mark face values can reprice sharply when a large round clears or when secondary pricing changes.

For traders, the key catalysts are financing announcements, the timing of any term-sheet close, and the NPM publication lag. NPM prices are updated once daily on trading days, posted the following calendar day at 1:00 pm ET, so a deal announced late in December may still feed into the market if the relevant business-date price lands before 31 December. If NPM has not published all relevant business dates by 1 January 2027, the market can remain open until 4 January, extending uncertainty into the new year.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Anthropic’s valuation hit 2027 by December 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.