Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket has this exact-score contract at **6% YES**, which is a low single-digit price for a very specific football outcome, so the market is effectively saying the listed scoreline is far less likely than *any other score* in a 90-minute result. The contract settles on the final score after regulation and stoppage time only, with extra time and penalties excluded, and it runs on USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the trading price reflects the market’s view of the exact state at full time rather than simply Uruguay winning or not.

For context, exact-score markets usually trade well below match-winner markets because they need a narrow combination of result and goal count. ESPN’s live pre-match listing shows Uruguay and Cabo Verde both on one point in the group after their opening matches, while the same fixture is being priced on the moneyline around Uruguay -225, a draw +320 and Cabo Verde +360, which is consistent with Uruguay being favoured but not in a one-sided spot[1]. AiScore’s head-to-head page also suggests there is little historical scoring volume to anchor a repeated pattern, with just one Uruguay win in the last five tracked meetings and modest goal output overall[2]. That kind of profile tends to push exact-score probabilities towards common football scores rather than anything precise.

The main trader watchpoints are the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or suspension news, and whether the scheduled kick-off at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium goes ahead as listed by FIFA and venue listings[4][6][7]. Because this market only resolves on the 90-minute scoreline, a late tactical change that affects pace or finishing is more relevant than extra-time narratives, and any postponement would simply keep the market open until the match is completed. FIFA’s match centre is the cleanest official source for venue and kick-off status, while team-news previews such as WhoScored are useful for checking probable XI updates closer to kick-off[4][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.