Tunisia vs. Japan

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **24% YES** for Tunisia to beat Japan, with the payout driven by USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens rather than by the match itself. The market settles on the World Cup fixture between Tunisia and Japan, so the key question is whether the result lands inside the defined settlement window ending 2026-06-21T04:00:00Z.

That price sits below what some traditional pre-match odds imply for Tunisia, but the market is still pricing Japan as the clearer favourite: ESPN’s listed moneyline shows Japan around **-190**, Tunisia around **+600**, and the draw around **+310**[1]. Head-to-head history also leans Japan, with ESPN showing Japan unbeaten in the recent meetings it lists, while AiScore’s record gives Japan three wins from four matches since 2002[1][7]. For a Polymarket trader, that combination usually reads as a low-single-digit upset view rather than a true coin-flip.

The catalysts to watch are simple but material: confirmed line-ups, any late injury or rotation news, and whether either side has already secured or lost group progression before kick-off, which can alter selection strength and urgency. FIFA’s match centre confirms this is a first-stage World Cup fixture, and recent FIFA preview material has highlighted Japan’s confidence going into the game[3]. If the market is trading off expectation of a stronger Japan side, any pre-match squad update or tactical surprise should move the implied probability quickly, especially with resolution tied to the official result rather than in-play narrative.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.