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LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 78% O/U 3.5 Games 74% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? 63% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 62% Volume: $296K Liquidity: $377K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
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LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
78% 22% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
78% 22% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon78%
O/U 3.5 Games74%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?63%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon62%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon62%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?56%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Game 4 Winner49%
First Blood in Game 3?49%
First Blood in Game 2?49%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?49%
Game 1 Winner48%
Game 2 Winner48%
Game 3 Winner48%
First Blood in Game 1?48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
First Blood in Game 4?47%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?47%
Match Winner46%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
Any Player Quadra Kill39%
Any Player Quadra Kill39%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor38%
O/U 4.5 Games37%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?37%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?36%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?34%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
Any Player Quadra Kill21%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5)19%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor19%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors13%
Any Player Penta Kill7%
Any Player Penta Kill6%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 78% YES probability for LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Bilibili Gaming and T1 in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 4:00AM ET. This market will …

Methodology

We track LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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