NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District seat is set for 23 June 2026, with Micah Lasher currently the only candidate the market prices as a nominee. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 1% YES for Lasher, reflecting USDC liquidity on the Polygon network and conditional token pricing that treats his nomination as a near-impossible outcome despite his name appearing on the tentative ballot. The market resolves to “Other” if no nominee is announced by 3 November 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the resolution source is a consensus of official Democrat channels including democrats.org.

Historically, low-probability primary bets in crowded New York City districts often mirror the 2024 NY-13 race, where an outsider candidate won only after a major incumbent withdrew late. In such cases, conditional tokens on Polymarket initially priced the outsider at under 2%, yet the final settlement shifted dramatically once campaign finance data from fec.gov revealed a sudden funding surge. The current 1% price for Lasher suggests traders expect no such late-stage disruption, though Ballotpedia confirms at least eight candidates are running, including Jack Schlossberg and George Conway, which fragments support and depresses any single nominee’s odds.

Traders should monitor the NYC Board of Elections’ final candidate list, expected in early May, and any campaign finance filings showing a candidate crossing the $50,000 threshold, which often triggers a surge in conditional token demand. A recent Kalshi market update notes that Lasher’s nomination probability remains flat despite his name on the ballot, while Blue Voter Guide highlights that endorsements from local Democratic committees could act as a catalyst. The settlement window ends 23 June 2026, so any pre-election replacement of the nominee will not alter the market’s resolution, making on-chain USDC positions a pure bet on the June primary outcome.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.