Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump resigning or being removed from the presidency before the end of 2026 is currently priced at a 10% chance on Polymarket, reflecting a crowd-implied belief that such an event is unlikely but not impossible. The market, which settles on 31 December 2026, trades using USDC on the Polygon network with conditional tokens that lock payouts based on the outcome. This 10% figure is a real-time signal derived from actual trades, not a theoretical forecast, and updates continuously as new information enters the on-chain system.

Historically, presidential removals have been rare and politically contingent. The only successful impeachment and removal of a US president occurred in 1868 with Andrew Johnson, though he was not removed from office; Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 amid impeachment proceedings, while Bill Clinton was impeached but not removed. In Trump’s second term, Kalshi estimates the probability of impeachment and removal at nearly 28.7%, a sharp rise from April’s 22.1% [1]. However, conviction remains unlikely as long as Republicans control the Senate, making removal by impeachment improbable [2]. The 25th Amendment offers another route, but its invocation requires VP and Cabinet consensus, which is not currently evident.

Traders should monitor key catalysts: impeachment announcements from the House, Senate voting schedules, and any public statements from the Vice President or Cabinet regarding the 25th Amendment. Recent news indicates Democrats have launched an impeachment inquiry, though conviction remains doubtful without Republican Senate support [2]. Any sudden shift in Republican Senate loyalty or a formal Cabinet move under the 25th Amendment would drastically alter the market’s probability. With the settlement window closing in six months, timing and political alignment are the decisive factors.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President before 2027? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.