MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by 2025?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at 0% yes, so the market is currently treating a 2025 Bitcoin sale by MicroStrategy as effectively absent. On Polymarket, buyers and sellers are swapping USDC on Polygon for conditional tokens tied to whether the company disclosed any sale before the deadline; the price therefore reflects both the event itself and how strictly traders think the resolution source will read “any Bitcoin”.

The closest reference point is that MicroStrategy, now Strategy, has spent the past few years making Bitcoin its core treasury asset rather than a trading book. Public reporting and company disclosures through early 2026 showed holdings of 714,644 BTC, with an average purchase price of about $76,056 per coin, and the firm has repeatedly signalled additional accumulation rather than distribution. In that context, a zero-cent price implies the crowd sees a sale as far less likely than routine equity or debt issuance, or even a pause in buying.

What still matters for traders is whether financing, index inclusion, or balance-sheet pressure changes that stance. A YouTube discussion in late 2025 highlighted concerns around possible MSCI-related forced selling of MSTR stock, but that is distinct from the company selling Bitcoin itself; the key catalysts remain any updated treasury policy, quarterly results, 8-K filings, or explicit commentary from Michael Saylor and the company on whether Bitcoin remains a hold-only reserve asset. On-chain movement alone will not settle the market unless it is paired with credible company reporting or consensus coverage that confirms a disposal.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.