What price will Bitcoin hit on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price on the final day of May 2026 remains entirely unpriced on Polymarket, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome. This settlement window closes on 1 June 2026, giving traders a roughly eighteen-month horizon to position on Bitcoin's spot price at that specific date. The contract settles against a reference price—likely a major exchange close or time-weighted average—and resolves in USDC on Polygon, meaning positions are tokenised as conditional claims that traders can exit or hedge via secondary markets before the settlement window closes.

Historical volatility in Bitcoin's price action offers limited guidance for predicting a single-day price point eighteen months forward. Bitcoin has experienced multiple 20–30 per cent swings within single months during bull and bear cycles, yet the longer the timeframe, the less predictive power daily volatility carries. The 2021 bull run saw Bitcoin reach $69,000 in November before collapsing; the 2023 recovery from $16,500 lows to $43,000 by year-end illustrates how macro sentiment and institutional adoption can reshape price floors within months. A zero-probability market suggests traders either lack conviction on directional bias or view the specificity of a single-day settlement as too narrow to price meaningfully.

Catalysts shaping Bitcoin's trajectory through May 2026 include Federal Reserve policy shifts, spot Bitcoin ETF flows (which have grown substantially since January 2024), and regulatory developments in major jurisdictions. Halving events—the next scheduled for April 2024—historically create price volatility in the months following, though correlation weakens with each cycle as the market matures. Macroeconomic data releases, geopolitical events affecting risk appetite, and announcements from major corporate or sovereign holders will likely drive intra-year movements that compound into May's settlement price.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.