What price will Bitcoin hit on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price action on 26 May 2026 will determine settlement of this contract, with traders on Polymarket currently pricing the YES outcome at zero per cent. The settlement window closes on 27 May at 04:00 UTC, meaning the reference price will likely be drawn from major spot exchanges during the final hours of 26 May. On Polymarket itself, positions are denominated in USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens representing YES and NO outcomes that resolve to either 1 or 0 USDC upon settlement.

Historical Bitcoin price movements over single-day windows show volatility clustering around macroeconomic announcements and regulatory developments. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price floor or ceiling, or sparse liquidity in this particular contract. Comparable single-day price prediction markets on Bitcoin have typically seen non-zero probabilities unless the strike price sits far outside recent trading ranges; the current reading suggests traders view the settlement price as highly unlikely to hit the specified level.

Catalysts through May 2026 will include US Federal Reserve communications, inflation data releases, and any major cryptocurrency regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets and the US dollar index remains a key dependency. Traders should monitor on-chain transaction volumes and exchange inflows, which historically precede significant price moves. The extended settlement window—nearly two years from the market's creation—introduces considerable uncertainty around macroeconomic conditions, institutional adoption trends, and potential protocol developments that could reshape Bitcoin's valuation framework.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.