What price will Bitcoin hit on May 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin’s price is due to be fixed by the CF Benchmarks real-time index at the settlement cut-off on 21 May 2026, and Polymarket is currently pricing this market at 0% YES. On Polymarket, traders post USDC on Polygon and the contract resolves into conditional tokens once the official index print is captured, so the live price reflects where the crowd thinks the final reference will land rather than spot BTC in the moment. With the market showing no probability on the YES side, it is effectively saying the chosen threshold is already viewed as out of reach by expiry.

That reading sits alongside a broader range of May forecasts that have clustered Bitcoin around the high-$70,000s to low-$80,000s. 24/7 Wall St. has argued that BTC needs a clean move above $80,000, and especially its 200-day moving average near $82,228, to shift the trend; otherwise it may remain trapped between roughly $75,000 and $85,000. Changelly’s May model is similar, putting the average near $80,608, with an expected band from about $77,288 to $83,929. In that context, a zero-probability reading suggests the contract is seen as requiring a decisive late move rather than an incremental grind.

For near-term catalysts, traders will be watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold the $80,000 area, where resistance has repeatedly capped rallies, and whether any broader market move follows post-Middle East or US macro headlines. Strategy’s latest earnings and any update on Michael Saylor’s weekly buying cadence remain relevant because corporate accumulation has been a visible source of demand this year. Funding conditions, ETF flows and any sharp move in the dollar or Treasury yields can also matter into the final hours, but the settlement price will ultimately depend on the CF Benchmarks print at the end of the window, not intraday highs or lows.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.