Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 31 May 2026 will determine this market's outcome, with settlement tied to Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The current 0% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that no single price bracket has sufficient conviction this far forward—a 17-month horizon where traditional volatility models struggle. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token pair on Polygon, with USDC collateral backing each outcome bracket, meaning traders are pricing not just directional Bitcoin movement but also the liquidity and data integrity of Binance's feed across that timeframe.

Historical Bitcoin price ranges over comparable 17-month windows show annualised volatility typically ranging from 60% to 120%, though structural shifts in adoption, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic conditions have repeatedly invalidated simple extrapolation. The 2021–2022 cycle saw Bitcoin move from $29,000 to $69,000 and back to $16,000 within 12 months; the 2023–2024 recovery from $16,500 to $73,000 took roughly 16 months. These precedents suggest that any single price bracket assigned meaningful probability today would require either extreme conviction about long-term direction or acceptance of tail-risk concentration.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Federal Reserve policy signals, institutional adoption announcements, and any major regulatory developments affecting spot trading venues. Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets and USD strength will likely dominate near-term price action through 2025, whilst halving cycles and on-chain metrics may influence longer-dated expectations. Binance's operational continuity—particularly its regulatory standing in key jurisdictions—remains a dependency for reliable settlement data.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.