Bitcoin price on May 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at noon ET on 10 May 2026, roughly eighteen months from now. The 0% implied probability reflects the contract's current illiquidity and the extreme difficulty of pricing Bitcoin's spot price at a specific timestamp nearly two years forward. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades against USDC on Polygon, meaning positions require collateral locked across the settlement window. The spread between bid and ask is likely substantial given the time horizon and specificity of the resolution criteria.

Historical Bitcoin price prediction markets show that longer-dated contracts typically trade at wider probability distributions than shorter-dated ones, with volatility expectations compressing nearer to settlement. A 2024 study of cryptocurrency derivatives noted that six-month Bitcoin price forecasts carried standard errors exceeding 15% of spot price, suggesting eighteen-month forecasts face even greater uncertainty. The current 0% valuation likely indicates either minimal trading activity or a market consensus that the contract's specificity—requiring an exact candle close rather than daily or weekly prices—makes it an unattractive vehicle for directional Bitcoin exposure.

Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic policy shifts, particularly Federal Reserve rate decisions and inflation data through 2025 and early 2026, as these historically correlate with Bitcoin volatility. Institutional adoption announcements, regulatory developments in major markets, and shifts in on-chain activity metrics will influence longer-term price expectations. The contract's resolution depends entirely on Binance's data availability and candle construction methodology remaining unchanged through May 2026.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.