Bitcoin above ___ on May 16?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on Bitcoin's Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 16 May 2026, a specific one-minute candle that will determine whether the contract resolves YES or NO. The 0% crowd probability reflects either an extremely high strike price relative to current Bitcoin valuations, or minimal liquidity and trader participation in this particular contract. On Polymarket, the market operates as conditional tokens on Polygon, with USDC collateral backing both YES and NO positions; the current pricing suggests traders assess the specified price level as effectively unreachable under baseline scenarios.

Historical Bitcoin price action provides limited direct precedent for predicting noon-specific closes eighteen months forward, though intraday volatility at major exchanges typically ranges 1–3% during regular trading hours. Bitcoin's behaviour around macroeconomic announcements, Federal Reserve communications, and regulatory developments has historically driven larger moves, though these occur unpredictably. The May 2026 window falls outside any announced major event cycle, reducing near-term catalysts for extreme price movements.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Bitcoin's medium-term trend trajectory, any significant shifts in institutional adoption or regulatory stance, and Binance's operational status. Spot price discovery on Binance BTC/USDT remains sensitive to broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, leverage positioning, and macro risk-off events. The settlement mechanism's reliance on a single one-minute candle introduces execution risk; liquidity conditions at precisely noon ET on that date could affect the close price independently of broader market conditions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.