Bitcoin price on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's noon ET price on 26 May 2026 will settle against Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a particular price bracket or minimal trading activity in this contract; Polymarket's USDC-on-Polygon mechanics mean positions are collateralised in stablecoin and resolved through conditional token settlement once Binance data is confirmed.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show volatility clustering around macroeconomic announcements and Federal Reserve communications. May 2026 falls within a period that could see fresh inflation data, employment reports, or central bank signalling—all traditional catalysts for directional moves. Comparable single-day price swings of 3–8% are routine during news cycles, though the specific noon ET window narrows the relevant volatility window considerably. Past Polymarket Bitcoin price contracts have typically seen probability distributions flatten as settlement approaches, with edge cases (exact bracket boundaries) resolved upward per the stated rules.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Federal Reserve's May 2026 meeting schedule, any scheduled macroeconomic data releases, and on-chain Bitcoin metrics in the weeks preceding settlement. Regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies can trigger sharp intraday moves. The noon ET timestamp matters: European morning trading and US pre-lunch hours often show distinct liquidity patterns on Binance, which could influence the specific candle close relative to daily open or close prices.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.