"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Toy Story 5** at **2% YES** on USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens, even though trade estimates now cluster around a very large domestic opening. That low probability matters because the contract resolves off The Numbers’ final three-day domestic figure for the June 19–21 weekend, so the key question for holders is not early tracking hype but where the audited weekend lands once studio estimates are replaced by final reported grosses.

Comparable franchise launches suggest the market is effectively asking whether the film can clear the top bracket that traders are assigning. Variety says the film is tracking at roughly **$145 million to $150 million** domestically, with some analysts floating **$160 million to $175 million**, while Deadline reports a slightly lower **$140 million** domestic forecast after revision. Those numbers frame the spread against the market’s current 2% price: if the eventual The Numbers total lands near the consensus range, the YES side may still need a materially stronger-than-expected print to justify a payout.

A trader watching the contract should focus on preview-night reporting, any late schedule changes, and the conversion from studio estimates to final The Numbers figures, because the settlement depends on the final confirmed weekend rather than headline estimates. Variety and Deadline both point to an unusually wide forecast band for a Pixar sequel opening in over 4,400 theatres, so intraday movement on Polymarket can follow exhibitor chatter, audience reception, and updated weekend projections before the official domestic total is locked in.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.