Bitcoin price on May 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

At the 12:00 ET Binance candle on 20 May, Bitcoin is being priced on Polymarket as a USDC-settled contract on Polygon, with the current market showing 0% for YES. That means traders are effectively saying the noon BTC/USDT close will land outside every bracket offered by the market, despite the fact that the relevant reference is a single one-minute candle close rather than a broader daily move. For Polymarket users, the key point is that conditional tokens will settle against Binance’s published close at that exact timestamp, so brief intraday spikes or wicks matter far less than the precise print at noon Eastern.

Recent context does not point to a stable range. Fortune reported Bitcoin at $76,565.02 on 19 May, down about $783 from the prior day, while Robinhood’s linked prediction market was already concentrating heavily around the $76,500 to $76,600 area for the same date. That sits below Bitcoin’s recent peak but well above the lows seen earlier in 2026, when SoFi’s history places the market as low as roughly $60,074 and as high as $97,860 in January. In practice, this is the sort of setup where a narrow bracket can be sensitive to small moves: a few hundred dollars either side of a round number can be enough to change the payout outcome.

Traders should watch any overnight macro headlines, spot ETF flows, and sharp moves in Binance’s BTC/USDT market leading into the 12:00 ET candle, because this contract resolves on that single reference price, not on a daily average. A Reuters or Fortune-style market note can matter if it shifts broader crypto sentiment before the noon cut-off, but the direct dependency is the Binance feed itself. If liquidity thins or volatility rises into the session, the settlement price can diverge from broader headline quotes, which is exactly why Polymarket prices these brackets off a specific exchange print rather than a general Bitcoin estimate.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.