Claude Mythos released on…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic has not yet released a model officially named or classified as "Claude Mythos" to the general public. The 0% crowd probability on Polymarket reflects the absence of any announced timeline or public roadmap for such a release. Settlement hinges on Anthropic's official designation—the model must carry "Mythos" in its name or be explicitly described as "Mythos-class" by the company itself. The market closes on 30 June 2026, giving a window of roughly 18 months for such an announcement and release.

Anthropic's naming conventions have remained consistent since Claude's public debut. The company has deployed Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus variants across different capability tiers, with version increments (3.5, 4, 4.5) marking performance improvements rather than architectural reclassifications. No internal leaks, job postings, or patent filings have suggested a "Mythos" designation is in development. Comparable AI labs—OpenAI with GPT series, Google with Gemini—have occasionally introduced new model families, but these typically follow explicit pre-announcement phases. The absence of any signal around a Mythos variant suggests either it remains unplanned or Anthropic is maintaining unusual secrecy.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's quarterly updates, research publications, and API documentation changes. The company's December 2024 announcements and any subsequent product releases will be key indicators. Conditional token mechanics on Polygon mean positions settle against Anthropic's official communications only; speculation about internal codenames or research directions will not trigger resolution. The current zero valuation reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus dismissal.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.